Courtest of Emily Zavada
Oscar Sunday is finally upon us. We’ve counted down every film to win Best Picture, and we’ve even ranked each of this year’s Best Picture nominees. The only thing left to do is to offer some predictions in every category at this year’s show. I suspect that I’ll miss in a few categories, but I think this is one of the more secure ballots I’ve submitted. With that kind of confidence, I’m bound to miss more than ever. But, as always, I’ll give it my best shot.
Let’s start at the top. Despite a late surge from “Conclave,” I believe “Anora” will Best Picture this year. Its precursor victories with the director and producer guilds make it exceptionally strong. The BAFTA-SAG duo of wins for “Conclave,” while impressive, is a historically weaker combination than what “Anora” has going for it.
In a shakier move, I’m picking Brady Corbet to win Best Director for “The Brutalist.” Sean Baker’s win with the DGA, as mentioned before, was a strong show of support for the “Anora” frontman, but my sense is that Corbet’s more ambitious cinematic vision will win out. It isn’t unheard for Best Picture and Best Director to split, and I think that’ll be the case this year.
Best Actor is down to Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist” and Timothee Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown.” With only a SAG award to his name, Chalamet is weaker than other biopic performers, and Brody’s strength in the bigger contending film is clear. Look for Brody to capture his second Oscar trophy, with an outside shot of Chalamet pulling off the upset.
The Best Actress category is similarly left with two major contenders: Demi Moore for “The Substance” and Mikey Madison for “Anora.” Madison looked to be a frontrunner earlier in the season, but Moore’s strong performance and campaign has catapulted her to favorite status. I expect Moore to squeak out a victory over Madison, just as she did at the SAG and Golden Globe awards.
Both the Supporting Actor and Actress categories are done deals. Kieran Culkin in “A Real Pain” and Zoe Saldana in “Emilia Perez” are unstoppable at this point. My favorites in those categories, Guy Pearce and Ariana Grande, respectively, are distant runners-up.
There is some intrigue in the Best Original Screenplay race this year. My Best Picture pick “Anora” is my pick in this category as well, but look out for “The Substance” or “A Real Pain.” Both of those latter films have won big awards already this season, but I think the strength of “Anora” and the respect for Sean Baker will carry it over the finish line.
By contrast, “Conclave” is way out in front for the Best Adapted Screenplay prize. None of its competitors are particularly close.
Best International Film is definitely a category to watch. “Emilia Perez” is racked with controversy, but it’s also the most nominated film of the year. It’s won in this category at every stop. Should those controversies penetrate the race, the Best Picture nominee “I’m Still Here” is the logical choice to take the prize. I’m going to stick with “Emilia Perez” as my personal pick, but I’d love to see the alternative pull it off.
In Best Animated Feature, “The Wild Robot” should win out. It’s always a good sign when an animated movie is nominated in other categories besides this one, and “The Wild Robot” is for both its score and sound. “Flow” has a chance to upset, but it hasn’t caught on as strongly as I would’ve expected. I’m sticking with “Robot” in my predictions.
The race for Best Documentary Feature is up in the air. “Porcelain War” has show some industry support, while “No Other Land” is the critical darling. Neither has made a compelling case to win up to this point, so the eventual winner is anyone’s guess. I’ll pick “No Other Land,” but proceed with caution if you’re determined to follow my lead.
“Conclave” is the shaky frontrunner for Best Film Editing. Truly, any of the five nominees could win and I wouldn’t be flabbergasted. This prediction is based solely on its win at the BAFTA awards, as the editors guild (ACE) has not yet held its ceremony, and is therefore useless as a prediction tool this year.
I expect “The Brutalist” to snag a pair of technical awards for Best Cinematography and Best Original Score. Those are probably the two aspects of the film that everyone can agree are successful. Cinematography is the more vague category, as either “Nosferatu” or “Maria” have a chance at claiming victory.
Like “The Brutalist,” “Wicked” can be counted on to win two technical awards, those for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design. The costumes are a runaway victor, but I have my eye on a big upset for “The Brutalist” in the production design category. A film about architecture feels ripe for a corresponding victory, but its shown no sign of life in the precursor awards. I’m predicting “Wicked,” but you heard it here first that a wild turn of events could be brewing.
“The Substance” should be a unanimous choice for Best Makeup & Hairstyling, and I expect it to easily clear its competition. As it relates to Demi Moore over in Best Actress, there is a strong, recent correlation between heavy prosthetics and acting wins. I think “The Substance” will stay consistent with that trend.
Despite being oddly weak compared to its preceding film, “Dune: Part Two” is still going to win a few Oscars. Like the first film, I think this sequel will carry the Best Visual Effects and Best Sound categories. In Best Sound, “Wicked” and “A Complete Unknown” definitely stand fighting chances, so look out for those two, but “Dune” has shown to be a winning property at the Oscars.
Best Original Song is unfortunately going to go to “El Mal” from “Emilia Perez.” Any song from that film winning feels like a loss for the rest of us, but its fine. The alternatives, outside of “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” — which has no chance of winning — are uninspired. The orignal song nominees will not be performed at the show this year, and I won’t miss them.
The short film categories are more unpredictable than ever, so it’s a real dart throw trying to predict winners. With very little evidence or reasoning, I’ll take “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” in Best Live Action Short, “Wander to Wonder” in Best Animated Short, and “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” in Best Documentary Short.
And those are my picks. “Anora” will take the top prize and one more for its screenplay, with “The Brutalist” taking the most awards with four total wins. “Emilia Perez” will snag three trophies, while “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “The Substance,” and “Wicked” will take two each. Among the Best Picture nominees, I think “A Complete Unknown,” “I’m Still Here” and “Nickel Boys” will go home empty-handed. Regardless of who wins, do yourself a favor and check out some of this year’s nominees. When the horse race is over, the films remain.
