The Academy has a clear preference when it comes to picking a makeup and hairstyling winner: An A-list celebrity caked in prosthetics. Typically, there is one movie that stands out above the rest in this regard and easily rushes to a victory. This year, however, the makeup and hairstyling category may be the most competitive race at this point in the awards season.

“The Whale,” on paper, looked like a clear frontrunner early on. The team who worked on this film did to Brendan Fraser what past (and winning) makeup teams did to Charlize Theron in “Bombshell,” Christian Bale in “Vice” and Gary Oldman in “Darkest Hour.” Fraser was transformed into a completely new person, a 600-pound man who is mostly confined to a single room. However, controversy arose after the film’s release for its use of a fat suit. If the Academy listens to the vocal detractors, the race may not be as clear as it once seemed.

At other times during the year, public opinion shifted towards “The Batman” winning this award, largely thanks in part to the transformation of Colin Farrell into the ruthless Penguin. It really is an incredible transformation, which, paired with Farrell’s hammy performance, is one of the more memorable aspects of the film. Special recognition must be paid to whoever thought equipping Robert Pattinson with faded black eyeliner was a good idea. He looks incredible as the angsty Bruce Wayne.

Like “The Whale,” “Elvis” attracted controversy for its use of makeup, specifically that which was used on Tom Hanks. Some found it over-the-top, while others found it offensive. Still, the Academy was undeterred and cited the film on the whole as one of the year’s best makeup and hairstyling achievements. Outside of the controversy, it’s worth noting that star Austin Butler does undergo something of a transformation himself, tragically morphing from a teen heartthrob to a bloated performer on his last legs.

Unlike these first three nominees, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” is more a hairstyling achievement rather than a makeup one. That’s ironic, considering this is the only film in the category to have its own real-life makeup line. Regardless, it is impressive that this makeup and hairstyling team is able to continually flesh out the Wakandans’ style and make Wakanda the most distinct setting in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

The Academy did a great job when they nominated “All Quiet on the Western Front” in this category. One of the lasting images of the year in film is the muddy, bloody mix of makeup that is caked onto the face of our main character, portrayed by Felix Kammerer. The innocent boy we meet in the beginning of the film is gone by the end, replaced by a disheveled, weary man who is scarred and bruised by the conditions of his war experience. The makeup drives home this most fearsome of transformations.

The Academy is bound to cause a stir no matter who wins this category, but there is no doubt each of the nominees has a narrative to win. After years of predictable winners, it will be nice to have a little suspense injected into the ceremony, courtesy of one of the more underappreciated categories.

To read more of Sam’s Oscar Outlooks, click here.