Editor’s Note: This is the last column for Gold Trot, a series on the Academy Awards before the Feb. 9 broadcast.
After a year of movies and awards season campaigning, we’ve reached the end of the road. Voting for the Academy Award nominees ends on Feb. 4 and the televised event is on Feb. 9. Here at That’s A Wrap, I’ve been following the season’s ongoing developments, from film festivals to the Golden Globes to the nomination announcement. And now I have my predictions of who and what will win on Hollywood’s biggest night.
Best Picture
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
Out of the nine titles in this category, about five of them had been known as frontrunners: “1917,” “Parasite,” “The Irishman,” “Jojo Rabbit” and “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.” Two are film festival winners (“Parasite” and “Jojo Rabbit”), two have won Golden Globes (“1917” and “Once Upon a Time”), and one was named best film by the National Board of Review (“The Irishman”). However, as the season winds down, two movies have emerged as the ones with the most momentum.
“1917” generated buzz in mid-December around film circles before its Christmas release in New York and Los Angeles. Once it was nationwide in January, audiences gave a favorable response to the technical wonder about a World War I mission for two soldiers (George MacKay and Dean-Charles Chapman) to deliver a message that can change the war’s course. Director Sam Mendes has been in this position before. He won best director 20 years ago for “American Beauty,” which would win four other Oscars, including best picture.
Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” has been on a wave of acclaim since it won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival in June. Bong shows the clashes between the poor Kim family and the well-to-do Parks in a story full of black comedy, horror and suspense. “Parasite” is the first South Korean film to go all the way to the Oscars, and Bong has never been more celebrated in Hollywood than he is now.
Between these two films, “1917” has the edge. It is the best picture winner at the Producers Guild of America Awards, with the PGAs being the most reliable indicator for what will win the best picture Oscar. Mendes also won the top award from the Directors Guild. These are the same steps “American Beauty” took before its Oscar wins. Also, the British are known to have a large presence in the Academy, so if they can pull off what they did for the Emmys in September with shows and TV movies like “Fleabag” and “Chernobyl” winning, “1917” is most likely to win.
What could help “Parasite” to win is that it’s in the position of making historic firsts. If it wins best picture, it would be the first foreign language film to do so. However, “Roma” was in this position last year and had to settle with the best foreign language film Oscar. As Bong said in his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, if anyone can get over an inch of subtitles and see the storytelling for what it is worth, “Parasite” should have no problem winning. “Parasite” has its fans in Hollywood, as seen with its best cast award from the Screen Actors Guild, but that award is unreliable for predicting best picture winners.
Neither film has any acting nominations, unlike most of the field, and they will likely win several awards in the night, but given the pattern of PGA and DGA, “1917” has the better chance.
Predicted winner: “1917”
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renée Zellweger, “Judy”
Most of the talk about this category has been around who did not make the cut. With Lupita Nyong’o of “Us” and Awkwafina of “The Farewell” not nominated, expect smooth sailing for Renée Zellweger to get her second Oscar for her portrayal of legend Judy Garland in “Judy.” Zellweger disappears into the role in a movie that is more about the performance than a plot-driven vehicle. It’s not a copy of her Roxy persona in “Chicago,” and it reminds audiences of what a great actress she is.
Predicted winner: Renée Zellweger, “Judy”
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
Only Jared Leto and Cesar Romero have not been nominated for their roles as the Joker. Jack Nicholson was nominated and Heath Ledger won in the supporting category for the DC Comics villain. Joaquin Phoenix has been nominated three times for three different roles without a win. But the combination of Phoenix and Joker may yield Oscar gold this time. Phoenix is the tormented origin of Joker, who takes care of his mother and is fascinated with violence and anarchy. Antonio Banderas and Adam Driver give career-defining performances, but “Joker” has the first role that appreciates what Phoenix does as an actor.
Predicted winner: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
The Academy loves Laura Dern. The daughter of actor Bruce Dern has been a part of the Academy for many years, including being a governor for the actors branch and nearly being elected academy president two years ago. However, her role as a divorce attorney in “Marriage Story” feels like a role made just for her and she does wonders to it. With Jennifer Lopez shockingly left out of the category for her role in “Hustlers,” Dern quickly became the frontrunner.
Predicted winner: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
Most of the time, those who are considered actors or an “actor’s actor” are likely to win in this category. Men like Alan Arkin, Christoph Waltz, Sam Rockwell and Mahershala Ali have collected trophies here. Movie stars, however, don’t fare well here. However, expect the opposite to happen this year, with Brad Pitt looking to win his first acting Oscar. In any other year, the fight would be between Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, but “The Irishman” lost its awards mojo by December. Pitt has never been more popular in an awards season, and that includes his run with “12 Monkeys.”
Predicted winner: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
As mentioned in the best picture section, it’s Mendes versus Bong. Mendes won at the Golden Globes and DGA, and some Academy members may think that “Parasite” should be happy with the best international film (formerly foreign language) award. It may have been 20 years between wins, but Mendes looks like a winner from this angle.
Predicted winner: Sam Mendes, “1917”
Other notable categories
Best Originial Screenplay: This year’s class is the strongest in terms of originality, but the screenplay with perhaps the most real-life and adapted element will win. That screenplay is by Quentin Tarantino for “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.” The Writers Guild Awards are not the best indicator for this category as many of the nominees are not guild members.
Best Adapted Screenplay: With criticism of the Academy’s lack of women directors included in the nominations, momentum may go Greta Gerwig’s way for her adaptation of “Little Women.”
Best Animated Feature: With only one Disney feature and one Dreamworks movie, this category is wide open. “Missing Link” was a surprise Golden Globe winner, and Netflix’s “Klaus” won big during the Oscars of animation, the Annies. Only one of the “Toy Story” movies has won in this category, and with “Toy Story 4” being the final one, it may win this time. But the Annies Awards may give “Klaus” the extra boost to win.
Best Original Score: In recent years, composer Hildur Guðnadóttir has produced and performed hypnotic and suspenseful scores for “Arrival” and “Sicario” under her mentor, the late Jóhann Jóhannsson. Now she is poised to become the first solo female composer to win a best score Oscar for “Joker.”
Best Original Song: “Rocketman” only received one nomination for the musical biopic, but Elton John may still come out a winner with “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” that he wrote with Bernie Taupin.
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