It was supposed to be a weekend where the playoff picture would finally take a more definitive shape.
It was supposed to be the weekend where Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch would join championship points standings leader Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon in the 2009 version of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup field.
When the smoke settled after Sunday night’s Pep Boys Auto 500 under the lights at Atlanta Motor Speedway, though, that playoff picture looked more like a modern art masterpiece.
Edwards (fifth place in the points standings, engine issues) and Busch (sixth, accident) turned what should have been a Chase qualifying celebration into clear and present frustration after disastrous nights, while only Hamlin was able to punch his ticket to the Chase, 2009 wins co-leader Kyle Busch dropped a spot on the bubble to an even more panic-stricken 14th place and none of the eight remaining spots in the Chase field even really came close to finding a suitor.
Oh, what a night it’s going to be on Saturday night in Richmond, and oh, what a fitting name for the race in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400. Sparks will definitely be flying in Richmond’s close confines.
Everything will finally take shape this weekend with the final spots in the Chase field set to be filled by eight of the 11 remaining hopefuls. Edwards and Busch are all but assured spots in the Chase, but the rest of the field could come down to some interesting driving under the lights on Saturday night.
Currently, Ryan Newman is in seventh place in the points standings with 2,995 points, while 12th-place Matt Kenseth is not far behind with 2,945 for a total of just 50 points separating the final six drivers in the top 12.
To make matters even more interesting, 13th-place Brian Vickers is only 20 points behind Kenseth — and 70 behind Newman — while 14th-place Kyle Busch is only 37 points behind Kenseth and 87 behind Newman.
That sure is not a lot of points, especially considering what can happen and has historically happened when the Sprint Cup rolls into Richmond.
Even David Reutimann, currently 15th in the points standings, still has a fighting chance, but he’ll need a lot of help if he is going to make up the 132-point differential he has with Kenseth.
All said, though, it seems that Mark Martin, currently 10th, Greg Biffle (11th) and Kenseth seem to be the most likely to give up their spots to one of the bubble drivers should a shakeup in the top 12 occur.
Things are definitely going to be interesting this weekend, and it should make for one heck of a race night.
CLINCH SCENARIOS
Of the 11 remaining drivers with a shot at clinching a spot in the Chase this weekend at Richmond, Edwards has the obvious best shot. Here is a look at the scenarios for each of the remaining 11 to clinch a spot, regardless of any other driver’s finish:
Carl Edwards (currently fifth): Needs to either finish 24th or better; 25th and lead a lap; or 27th and lead the most laps.
Kurt Busch (currently sixth): Needs to finish 20th or better; 22nd and lead at least one lap; or 24th and lead the most laps.
Kasey Kahne (currently 11th): Needs to finish 21st or better; 23rd of better and lead at least one lap; or 24th and lead the most laps.
Juan Pablo Montoya (currently ninth): Needs to finish 18th or better; 20th and lead at least one lap; or 21st and lead the most laps.
Ryan Newman (currently seventh): Needs to finish 16th or better; 17th and lead at least one lap; or 19th and lead the most laps.
Mark Martin (currently 10th): Needs to finish 12th or better; 14th and lead at least one lap; or 15th and lead the most laps.
Greg Biffle (currently eighth): Needs to finish11th or better; 13th and lead at least one lap; or 15th and lead the most laps.
Matt Kenseth (currently 12th): Needs to finish second and lead at least one lap, or finish third and lead the most laps.
Currently out of the Chase but still able to qualify:
Brian Vickers (currently 13th): Needs to gain 21 points on Kenseth and stay ahead of Kyle Busch to qualify.
Kyle Busch (currently 14th): Needs to gain 17 points on Vickers and 37 points on Kenseth to qualify.
David Reutimann (currently 15th): Needs to gain 133 points on Kenseth (A maximum of 161 points can be earned in any given race.)
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2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Points Standings
Rank…Driver…Points…Behind
1.…Tony Stewart…3564…---
2.…Jimmie Johnson…3344…220
3.…Jeff Gordon…3310…254
4.…Denny Hamlin…3141…423
5.…Carl Edwards…3110…454
6.…Kurt Busch…3103…461
7.…Ryan Newman…2995…569
8.…Greg Biffle…2986…578
9.…Juan Montoya…2975…589
10.…Mark Martin…2971…593
11.…Kasey Kahne…2963…601
12.…Matt Kenseth…2945…619
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