Philadelphia Eagles defenders Akeem Jordan (56) and J.R. Reed (30) combine to bring down Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch (23) in the second quarter. The Eagles defeated the Bills, 17-9, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Sunday, December 30, 2007. (Mike Levin/Philadelphia Inquirer/MCT)
Isn’t it funny how a team like the Buffalo Bills can go from relative unknowns in the NFL, to having the spotlight shown on them on an almost consistent basis? Unfortunately, this Bills team isn’t anywhere near what the it was back in the ’90s when it went to four straight Super Bowls, winning a whopping zero. But I am sure fans still miss quarterback Jim Kelly and running back Thurman Thomas.
First off, let’s talk about the good news. Well, some would consider it good news. When the Cowboys decided to cut wide receiver Terrell Owens, the Bills wasted no time signing him. Why not? Owens is one of the most polarizing figures in the NFL and will put butts in the seats. His presence alone upgraded the team’s passing game. Of course, with the highs come the lows. The front office decided to trade offensive tackle Jason Peters to the Eagles for a first-round pick. Yes, he made some awful mistakes last year, but he is regarded as being one of the better/younger left tackles in the league. His loss will hurt if the team can’t make up for his absence.
But now onto the subject of this week’s article: Running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has gotten himself into some trouble the past couple years. He was involved in a hit-and-run accident in 2008. The victim did not suffer severe injuries, and Lynch ended up being slapped with a fine, and his driver’s license and car registration were revoked. Unfortunately, Lynch’s off-field problems don’t end there. Last year, Lynch and two friends were pulled over in Culver City, Calif., and he was arrested for carrying a loaded weapon that was found in his 2006 Mercedes-Benz. This proved to be the last straw for the NFL. After months of speculation and rumors, the league finally handed Lynch a three-game suspension for the 2009 season.
So where does this leave Lynch’s fantasy value? Good question. It wouldn’t bother us as much if the team didn’t have another option to plug in for those first three weeks, but backup Fred Jackson is no slouch. He proved to be a very talented player, especially as a pass-catcher, catching 37 balls for 317 yards. Jackson should be named the starter sometime in training camp. And if he shows he can be a legitimate weapon, he could have a bigger role in the offense after Lynch comes back. However, don’t think Jackson is going to be this huge stud. He signed a new contract a couple weeks ago, but $7.5 million over the next four years is a good indication that the team will still rely heavily on Lynch through the rest of the season.
Looking at the average draft position of mock drafts so far, Lynch hasn’t slipped past the fourth round. In fact, Lynch was taken at the 4.5 spot in an experts’ league I am currently drafting in. But the owner who took the plunge already had two starting running backs on his roster, which shows us that Lynch is definitely not someone you want to draft high, unless you already have players who can take his spot for the first three weeks. Lynch could be worth the three-week benching once he comes back, especially in leagues that can start three running backs. He still has more than 2000 rushing yards over the past two years and should continue to put up numbers, especially with the passing game expected to be a lot better this year. The loss of Peters could hurt, but I don’t see it having that much of an impact. As for Jackson, his main fantasy role should be as Lynch’s handcuff. But if you want to throw caution to the wind, Jackson could be a decent low-end option in larger leagues. Just don’t get caught up in the hype.
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