This year, you can count on Oscar spreading the wealth around.
Not only has the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences nominated 10 films instead of the standard five for Best Picture, but the eventual winners in the acting and screenwriting categories are likely to represent a sampler of some of 2009’s best movies, including “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Blind Side,” “Crazy Heart” and “Up in the Air.”
No question, the biggest battle of the evening will be between “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” and the films’ respective directors James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. The fact that the filmmakers were once married only makes the contest seem juicier.
Will the Academy honor “Avatar,” the highest-grossing film of all time, a 3-D mindblower that was largely created on computers with revolutionary technology that Cameron took years to develop? Or will voters opt for the indie edginess of “The Hurt Locker,” an explosive Iraq War film that eeked out a mere $12 million in theaters?
If Cameron wins the Best Director prize, he’ll be keeping his “Titanic” streak alive. If his ex-wife wins, she’ll be the first woman to nab the directing prize in the Academy’s 82 year history.
It’s a good thing that the Best Picture and Best Director races are fraught with suspense because the acting contests are pretty much cut-and-dried affairs. Mo’Nique and Christoph Waltz are solid front-runners for their supporting performances. Sandra Bullock and Jeff Bridges don’t have quite as firm a grip on the Best Actress and Best Actor statues, but don’t bet against them.
In a bid for better ratings, the Academy broke with a 65-year-old tradition and nominated 10 films for Best Picture. It was a move intended to make the Oscars more inclusive of crowd pleasers like “The Blind Side” and “District 9,” both of which scored surprise nods.
This year, Wilkes-Barre might get a shout-out from one of the winners. If producer Jon Landau scores the Best Picture prize for “Avatar,” he could give a holler to all of his relatives in the region.
When the Academy Awards get underway Sunday, March 7 at 8 p.m., Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin will be sharing the hosting duties. The show’s producers — Bill Mechanic and Adam Shankman — promise a telecast that’s shorter (none of the nominated songs will be performed) and snappier, with a lavish tribute to the year’s most popular movies, not just the ones nominated for Oscars.
Here’s a look at how this year’s key contests stack up:
Best Picture
The nominees: “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “Up” and “Up in the Air.”
Will win: “The Hurt Locker.”
Should win: “Precious.”
The rationale: An eye-popping sci-fi spectacle, “Avatar” is the overwhelming frontrunner. Or so everybody says. And yet the $2.3 billion-grossing film lost both the all-important Director’s Guild of America and Producer’s Guild of America awards to “The Hurt Locker.” So, it’s a tight, tight race — and even the deserving “Precious,” “Up in the Air” and “Inglourious Basterds” could upset on Oscar night. But I’m guessing “The Hurt Locker’s” grit and gravitas wins out in the end.
Best Director
The nominees: Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker,” James Cameron for “Avatar,” Lee Daniels for “Precious,” Jason Reitman for “Up in the Air” and Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds.”
Will win: Bigelow.
Should win: Bigelow.
The rationale: Even if “Avatar” wins the top prize, count on the long-deserving Bigelow to net the Best Director Oscar. How come? Cameron’s already got an Oscar for “Titanic” while the much- respected Bigelow has yet to win. Also, who wants a re-run of Cameron’s “King of the World” speech?
Best Actor
The nominees: Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart,” George Clooney in “Up in the Air,” Colin Firth in “A Single Man,” Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” and Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker.”
Will win: Bridges.
Should win: Bridges.
The rationale: As boozy country singer Bad Blake, Bridges delivered one of the richest, most heartbreaking turns of his career. That, and the fact that he’s one of Hollywood’s nicest guys, will finally net him his first Oscar. Bridges’ has some stiff competition from Renner as a daredevil bomb expert. And you can never count out Clooney. But Bridges has been waiting for an Oscar for a long time. It’s finally his turn in the winner’s circle.
Best Actress
The nominees: Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side,” Helen Mirren in “The Last Station,” Carey Mulligan in “An Education,” Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious” and Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia.”
Will win: Bullock.
Should win: Mulligan.
The rationale: Even though Streep has been nominated 16 times, she hasn’t won since 1983’s “Sophie’s Choice,” making her long overdue for the top prize. That said, everybody loves a winner, and Bullock had a dream year, pulling both “The Proposal” and “The Blind Side” into the $100-million-hit club. Mulligan gave a sparkling performance in “An Education,” but the film has no heat. Ditto “Precious.” It’ll be Bullock, but don’t be blindsided if Streep walks to the podium.
Best Animated Film
The nominees: “Coraline,” “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “The Princess and the Frog,” The Secret of Kells” and “Up.”
Will win: “Up.”
Should Win: “Up.”
The rationale: In an amazingly strong year for cartoons, Pixar’s “Up” has the big edge. “Fantastic Mr. Fox” was friskier and more inventive, but “Up” has more heart.
Best Documentary Feature
The nominees: “Burma VJ,” “The Cove,” “Food, Inc.,” “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” and “Which Way Home.”
Will win: “The Cove.”
Should win: “The Cove.”
The rationale: “Food, Inc.” might upset but “The Cove,” an expose of an annual dolphin slaughter in Japan, is likely to snatch the golden ring because it somehow made advocacy filmmaking as pulse-pounding as a James Bond thriller. Who can argue with that?
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Matt Damon in “Invictus,” Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger,” Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station,” Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones” and Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds.”
Will win: Waltz.
Should win: Waltz.
The rationale: If Waltz doesn’t win, it’ll be among Oscar’s biggest upsets. The Austrian actor has already earned a gazillion prizes for his performance as a wily Nazi in Tarantino’s World War II epic. It certainly helps his cause that “Inglourious Basterds” is the only movie in his category that’s become a full-fledged hit.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Pen�lope Cruz in “Nine,” Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air,” Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart,” Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air” and Mo’Nique in “Precious.”
Will win: Mo’Nique.
Should win: Mo’Nique.
The rationale: Mo’Nique’s searing performance in “Precious” is the stuff Oscar dreams are made of. With 25 critics’ prizes to her name — as well the Golden Globes and the SAG award — the standup comic and cable-TV host is the night’s surest sure thing. Farmiga and Kendrick — both so wonderful in “Up in the Air” — will cancel each other out. Gyllenhaal and Cruz are lucky to be nominated. It’s Mo’Nique’s night to shine.
Best Foreign Language Film
The nominees: “Ajami,” “El Secreto de Sus Ojos,” “The Milk of Sorrow,” “Un Proph�te” and “The White Ribbon”
Will win: “The White Ribbon.”
Should win: “The White Ribbon.”
The rationale: While France’s “The Prophet” and Argentina’s “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” have their supporters, no 2009 foreign film made quite the impact of Austria’s “The White Ribbon,” the latest exercise in dread and mystery from Michael Haneke (“Funny Games”).
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell for “District 9,” Nick Hornby for “An Education,” Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche for “In the Loop,” Geoffrey Fletcher for “Precious” and Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for “Up in the Air.”
Will win: Reitman and Turner.
Should win: Reitman and Turner.
The rationale: Reitman and Turner deserve to come out on top for jet-fueling a script about the sad state of the American economy that’s funny, smart and overflowing with continually surprising characters.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: Mark Boal for “The Hurt Locker,” Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds,” Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman for “The Messenger,” Joel and Ethan Coen for “A Serious Man” and Bob Peterson and Pete Docter for “Up.”
Will win: Tarantino.
Should win: Tarantino.
The rationale: Tarantino’s biggest competition comes from Boal, but “The Hurt Locker” is best remembered for the pulse-pounding, dialogue-less bomb-disabling sequences. That could work against Boal. By contrast, “Inglourious Basterds” is all about the tension between talk and action. Watch Tarantino walk home with his second golden boy.
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